Soo koobid:Iska horimaadka u dhexeeya saadka iyo baahida ayaa ah mid ka mid ah sababaha keenaya kor u kaca qiimaha nikkelka, laakiin ka dambeeya xaaladda suuqa ee kacsan, mala-awaal badan oo ka jira warshadaha ayaa ah "badan" (oo uu hoggaamiyo Glencore) iyo "madhan" (badanaa by Tsingshan Group). .
Dhawaan, iyada oo iskahorimaadka u dhexeeya Ruushka iyo Ukraine uu yahay fiyuuska, LME (London Metal Exchange) mustaqbalka nikkel ayaa ka dillaacay suuqa "epic".
Iska horimaadka u dhexeeya saadka iyo baahida ayaa ah mid ka mid ah sababaha keenaya kor u kaca qiimaha nikkelka, laakiin ka dambeeya xaaladda suuqa ee kacsan, mala-awaal badan oo ka jira warshadaha ayaa ah in xoogaga raasumaalka ee labada dhinac ay yihiin "dibi" (oo uu hogaaminayo Glencore) iyo "madhan" (badanaa by Tsingshan Group).
LME nikkel wakhtiga dhamaadka wakhtiga suuqa
Bishii Maarso 7, qiimaha nikelka LME wuxuu ka kacay US$30,000/ton (qiimaha furitaanka) ilaa US$50,900/ton (qiimaha dejinta), koror maalin keliya ah ilaa 70%.
Bishii Maarso 8, qiimaha nikkelka LME ayaa sii waday inuu kor u kaco, isagoo sare u kacay ugu badnaan US$101,000/ton, ka dibna dib ugu soo dhacay US$80,000/ton. Labadii maalmood ee ganacsiga, qiimaha nikkelka LME wuxuu kacay ilaa 248%.
4:00 galabnimo ee Maarso 8, LME waxay go'aansatay inay hakiso ganacsiga mustaqbalka nikkel oo ay dib u dhigto keenista dhammaan qandaraasyada nikelka ee markii hore loo qorsheeyay in la keeno Maarso 9.
9-kii Maarso, kooxda Tsingshan waxay ku jawaabtay inay ku bedeli doonto saxan nikkel birta gudaha ah iyo saxankeeda sare ee nikkel, waxayna u qoondeysay meel ku filan oo lagu gaarsiin karo kanaalo kala duwan.
10-kii Maarso, LME waxay sheegtay inay qorshaysay inay ka baxdo boosas dheer iyo kuwo gaaban ka hor inta aan dib loo furin ganacsiga nikkel, laakiin labada dhinacba waxay ku guuldareysteen inay si wanaagsan uga jawaabaan.
Laga bilaabo Maarso 11 ilaa 15, LME nikkel ayaa sii waday in la hakiyo.
Bishii Maarso 15, LME waxay ku dhawaaqday in qandaraaska nikelku uu dib u bilaabi doono ganacsiga Maarso 16 wakhtiga maxalliga ah. Kooxda Tsingshan waxay sheegtay inay isku dubaridi doonto isku-xidhka credit-ka dareeraha ee Tsingshan's nikkel haynta xadka iyo baahiyaha dejinta.
Marka la soo koobo, Ruushka, oo ah dhoofiye muhiim ah oo ka mid ah kheyraadka nikkel, ayaa la xayiray sababtoo ah dagaalka Ruushka iyo Yukreeniyaan, taas oo keentay awood la'aanta nikkel Ruush ah in la keeno LME, oo lagu dul saaray arrimo badan sida awood la'aanta in lagu buuxiyo kheyraadka nikkel ee Koonfur-bari Asia waqtigeeda, amarrada madhan ee Tsingshan Group ee xannibaadda ayaa laga yaabaa inaanay suurtagal ahayn in la sameeyo waqti.
Waxaa jira calaamado kala duwan oo muujinaya in dhacdadan loogu yeero "cidhiidhiga gaaban" aysan weli dhammaan, xiriirka iyo ciyaaraha ka dhexeeya daneeyayaasha dheer iyo kuwa gaaban, LME, iyo hay'adaha maaliyadeed ayaa wali sii socda.
Ka faa'iidaysiga tan fursad ahaan, maqaalkani wuxuu isku dayi doonaa inuu ka jawaabo su'aalaha soo socda:
1. Waa maxay sababta birta nikelku ay u noqoto diiradda ciyaarta caasimadda?
2. Ma ku filan sahayda kheyraadka nikelka?
3. Intee in le'eg ayay korodhka qiimaha nikelku saamayn doonaa suuqa baabuurta tamarta cusub?
Nickel ee batteriga korontadu waxay noqotaa tiir korriin cusub
Iyada oo horumarka degdega ah ee baabuurta tamarta cusub ee adduunka, kor loo qaaday isbeddelka nikkel sare iyo kobalt hoose ee baytariyada ternary lithium, nikkel ee baytariyada korantada noqonaysaa tiir koritaanka cusub ee isticmaalka nikkel.
Warshaduhu waxay saadaaliyeen in sanadka 2025, baytariyada ternary powerka caalamiga ahi ay ku xisaabtami doonaan ilaa 50%, kuwaas oo baytariyada ternary-ga ee nikkelku ay ka badnaan doonaan 83%, halka saamiga 5-taxane ee baytariyada dambe ay hoos uga dhici doonaan 17%. Baahida loo qabo nikelku waxa kale oo ay ka korodhi doontaa 66,000 tan 2020 ilaa 620,000 tan 2025, iyada oo celceliska kobaca isku xidhka sanadlaha ahi yahay 48% afarta sano ee soo socota.
Marka loo eego saadaasha, baahida caalamiga ah ee nikkel ee baytariyada korantada ayaa sidoo kale kor u kici doona wax ka yar 7% hadda ilaa 26% sanadka 2030.
Maadaama uu yahay hogaamiyaha caalamiga ah ee baabuurta tamarta cusub, Tesla's "nikkel hoarding" dabeecadda waa ku dhawaad waalan. Maamulaha guud ee Tesla Musk ayaa sidoo kale sheegay marar badan in alaabta ceeriinka ah ee nikkel ay yihiin dhalooyinka ugu weyn ee Tesla.
Gaogong Lithium waxay ogaatay in tan iyo 2021, Tesla ay si isdaba joog ah ula kacday shirkadda Faransiiska New Caledonia macdanta Proni Resources, Australia macdanta BHP Billiton, Brazil Vale, shirkadda macdanta Canadian Giga Metals, macdanta American Talon Metals, iwm Tiro ka mid ah shirkadaha macdanta ayaa saxiixay tiro heshiisyo sahayda muddada-dheer ee nickel.
Intaa waxaa dheer, shirkadaha ku jira silsiladda warshadaha batteriga korontada sida CATL, GEM, Huayou Cobalt, Zhongwei, iyo Tsingshan Group ayaa sidoo kale kordhinaya xakamaynta khayraadka nikkel.
Tani waxay ka dhigan tahay in xakamaynta kheyraadka nikkel ay la mid tahay haynta tigidhka jidka trillion-dollar.
Glencore waa badeecada ugu weyn aduunka waana mid ka mid ah dib-u-warshadaynta ugu weyn aduunka iyo soosaarayaasha agabka ay ku jirto nikkel, oo leh faylalka macdan qodista ee laxidhiidha Canada, Norway, Australia iyo New Coledonia. hantida. Sannadka 2021, dakhliga hantida nikkel ee shirkadu wuxuu noqon doonaa US$2.816 bilyan, koror sanadba sanadka ka dambeeya 20%.
Marka loo eego xogta LME, laga soo bilaabo Janaayo 10, 2022, saamiga rasiidhada bakhaarka mustaqbalka ee nikkel ee uu haysto hal macmiil ayaa si tartiib tartiib ah uga kordhay 30% ilaa 39%, iyo bilowgii Maarso, saamiga wadarta rasiidhada bakhaarka ayaa kor u dhaafay 90%.
Marka loo eego qiyaastan, suuqu wuxuu qiyaasayaa in dibida ciyaartan gaaban ay u badan tahay inay noqdaan Glencore.
Dhinaca kale, Kooxda Tsingshan ayaa jebisay iyada oo loo marayo tiknoolajiyada diyaarinta ee "NPI (birta doofaarka nikkel ee ka soo jeeda nikkel dambe) - matte sare", taas oo si weyn hoos u dhigtay kharashka waxaana la filayaa in la jebiyo saameynta nikkel sulfate ee nikkel saafi ah (oo leh maaddo nikkel ah oo aan ka yarayn 99.8%, sidoo kale loo yaqaan nikkel aasaasiga ah).
Dhanka kale, 2022 ayaa noqon doona sanadka marka mashruuca cusub ee Tsingshan Group ee Indonesia la hawlgelin doono. Tsingshan waxay leedahay rajooyin koritaan oo xoog leh oo ku saabsan awoodeeda wax soo saar ee dhismaha. Bishii Maarso 2021, Tsingshan waxa uu heshiis sahayda nikkel sare ah la saxeexday Huayou Cobalt iyo Zhongwei Co., Ltd.
Waa in la tilmaamaa in shuruudaha LME ee alaabta nikkel-ku-gudbinta ay yihiin nikkel saafi ah, iyo nikkel matte sare waa badeecad dhexdhexaad ah oo aan loo isticmaali karin dhalmada. Qingshan saafiga ah nikkel waxa inta badan laga keenaa Ruushka. Nikkel Ruushku waa laga mamnuucay ganacsiga dagaalka Ruushka iyo Yukreeniyaan dartood, taasoo sare u qaadaysa alaabada nikkel ee saafiga ah ee aadka u hooseeya, taas oo Qingshan gelisay khatarta ah "wax alaab ah oo la hagaajin karo".
Waa si sax ah sababtan awgeed in ciyaarta-gaaban ee birta nikkel ay soo dhowdahay.
Kaydka iyo sahayda nikkel ee caalamiga ah
Sida laga soo xigtay Sahanka Juquraafi ee Maraykanka (USGS), ilaa dhamaadka 2021, kaydka nikkel ee caalamiga ah (keydka la xaqiijiyay ee kaydka dhulka ku salaysan) waa ilaa 95 milyan oo tan.
Waxaa ka mid ah, Indonesia iyo Australia waxay leeyihiin qiyaastii 21 milyan oo tan, siday u kala horreeyaan, xisaabinta 22%, oo ay ku jiraan labada ugu sarreeya; Brazil ayaa 17% ka ah kaydka nikel ee 16 milyan oo tan, kaalinta saddexaad; Ruushka iyo Filibiin waxay leeyihiin 8% iyo 5% siday u kala horreeyaan. %, kaalinta afraad ama shanaad. Wadamada TOP5 ayaa ah 74% kheyraadka nikkel ee caalamka.
Kaydka Nikel ee Shiinaha ayaa ah ilaa 2.8 milyan oo tan, taas oo ka dhigan 3%. Maaddaama uu yahay isticmaale weyn oo ka mid ah kheyraadka nikkel, Shiinuhu wuxuu aad ugu tiirsan yahay soo dejinta kheyraadka nikkelka, iyadoo heerka soo dejinta uu ka badan yahay 80% sannado badan.
Marka loo eego dabeecadda macdanta, macdanta nikkel waxa loo qaybiyaa badiyaa nikkel sulfide iyo nikkel laterite, oo leh saamiga qiyaastii 6:4. Kan hore wuxuu inta badan ku yaal Australia, Ruushka iyo gobollo kale, kan dambe wuxuu inta badan ku yaal Indonesia, Brazil, Filibiin iyo gobollo kale.
Sida laga soo xigtay suuqa codsiga, baahida hoose ee nikkel waa inta badan soo saarida ahama, Alloys iyo baytariyada korontada. Birta aan-dhalatada lahayn waxay u dhigantaa qiyaastii 72%, alloys iyo shubiddu waxay ku xisaabtamayaan qiyaastii 12%, iyo nikkel ee baytariyadu waa ilaa 7%.
Markii hore, waxaa jiray laba dariiqo oo sahayda sahayda ah oo aad u madax-bannaan oo ku jiray silsiladda sahayda nikkel: "latterite nickel-nickel pig iron/nickel iron-stainless steel" iyo "nickel sulfide-pure nickel-battery nickel".
Isla mar ahaantaana, suuqa saadka iyo dalabka nikkel waxa uu sidoo kale si tartiib tartiib ah u wajahayaa dheelitir la'aanta qaabdhismeedka. Dhinaca kale, tiro badan oo ah mashruucyo birta doofaarka nikkel ah oo ay soo saartay geeddi-socodka RKEF ayaa la geliyey hawlgalka, taasoo keentay in dheeraad ah oo dheeraad ah oo birta doofaarka nikkel; Dhanka kale, oo ay hogaaminayaan horumarka degdega ah ee baabuurta tamarta cusub, baytariyada Kobaca nikkelku waxay keentay yaraanta nikkel saafi ah.
Xogta ka soo baxday Xafiiska Tirakoobka Biraha Adduunka ayaa muujinaysa in ay jiri doonto wax ka badan 84,000 oo tan oo nikkel ah sanadka 2020. Laga bilaabo 2021, baahida nikkel ee adduunka ayaa aad kor ugu kici doonta. Iibinta gawaarida tamarta cusub ayaa horseeday kobaca isticmaalka yar ee nikkelka, iyo yaraanta sahayda ee suuqa nikkel adduunka waxay gaari doontaa 144,300 tan sanadka 2021.
Si kastaba ha ahaatee, horumarka tignoolajiyada wax-soo-saarka badeecada ee dhexdhexaadka ah, dariiqa sahayda qaab-dhismeed ee kor ku xusan waa la jabiyay. Marka hore, macdanta dambe ee darajada hoose waxay soo saari kartaa nikkel sulfate iyada oo loo marayo sheyga dhexdhexaadka ah ee qoyan ee habka HPAL; labaad, macdanta dambe-heer sare waxay soo saari kartaa birta nikkel doofaarka iyada oo loo marayo habka pyrotechnic RKEF, ka dibna dhex mara afuufaya Converter si ay u soo saaraan matte nikkel heer sare ah, taas oo iyana soo saarta nikkel sulfate. Waxay garwaaqsan tahay suurtogalnimada codsiga nikkel-ka dambe ee warshadaha tamarta cusub.
Waqtigan xaadirka ah, mashaariicda wax soo saarka ee isticmaalaya tignoolajiyada HPAL waxaa ka mid ah Ramu, Moa, Coral Bay, Taganito, iwm Isla mar ahaantaana, mashruuca Qingmeibang ee ay maalgaliyeen CATL iyo GEM, mashruuca Huayue nickel-cobalt oo ay maalgelisay Huayou Cobalt, iyo Huafei nickel-cobalt mashruuca ay maalgelisay Yiwei waa dhammaan mashaariicda HPAL.
Intaa waxaa dheer, mashruuca matte sare ee nikkel ee ay hogaamiso Tsingshan Group ayaa la hawl galiyay, kaas oo sidoo kale furay farqiga u dhexeeya nikkel dambe iyo nikkel sulfate, oo xaqiiqsaday beddelka birta doofaarka ee nikkel ee u dhexeeya birta birta ah iyo warshadaha tamarta cusub.
Aragtida warshadaha ayaa ah in muddada gaaban, sii-deynta awoodda wax-soo-saarka sare ee nikkel ma aysan gaarin heerka fududeynta farqiga sahayda ee walxaha nikkel, iyo kobaca sahayda nikkel sulfate weli waxay ku xiran tahay kala dirida asaasiga ah ee nikkel sida digirta nikkel / budada nikkel. sii wad isbeddel xooggan.
Muddada dheer, isticmaalka nikkel ee goobaha dhaqanka sida birta aan-xawaalka ahayn ayaa sii waday koritaanka joogtada ah, iyo isbeddelka koritaanka degdegga ah ee berrinka baytariyada tamarta ternary waa hubaal. Awoodda wax-soo-saarka mashruuca "nickel pig iron-high nickel matte" ayaa la sii daayay, mashruuca geeddi-socodka HPAL wuxuu geli doonaa xilliga wax soo saarka ballaaran ee 2023. Baahida guud ee kheyraadka nikkel waxay ilaalin doontaa dheelitirka adag ee u dhexeeya sahayda iyo baahida mustaqbalka.
Saamaynta qiimaha nikkelku ku kacayo suuqa baabuurta tamarta cusub
Dhab ahaantii, sababtoo ah qiimaha nikkel ee cirka isku shareeray, Tesla's Model 3 nooca waxqabadka sare leh iyo Model Y-nolol dheer, nooca waxqabadka sare leh ee isticmaalaya baytariyada nikkel-sare ayaa labadaba kor u kacay 10,000 yuan.
Marka loo eego GWh kasta oo ah baytari lithium ternary-sare ah (qaadashada NCM 811 tusaale ahaan), 750 tan oo bir ah oo nikkel ah ayaa loo baahan yahay, GWh kasta oo ah nikkel dhexdhexaad ah iyo mid hooseeya (5 taxane, 6 taxane) baytariyada ternary lithium waxay u baahan yihiin 500-600 tan oo bir ah oo nikkel ah. Kadibna qiimaha halbeegga ee nikelku waxa uu kordhay 10,000 yuan halkii tonkii birta ah, taas oo macnaheedu yahay in qiimaha baytariyada ternary lithium ee GWh uu kordho qiyaastii 5 milyan yuan ilaa 7.5 milyan yuan.
Qiyaasta adag ayaa ah in marka qiimaha nikelku yahay US$50,000/ton, qiimaha Tesla Model 3 (76.8KWh) wuxuu kordhin doonaa 10,500 yuan; iyo marka qiimaha nikkelku kordho US$100,000/ton, qiimaha Tesla Model 3 wuu kordhi doonaa. Korodhka ku dhawaad 28,000 yuan.
Laga soo bilaabo 2021, iibka caalamiga ah ee baabuurta tamarta cusub ayaa kor u kacday, gelitaanka suuqa ee baytariyada tamarta sare leh ayaa sii kordhay.
Gaar ahaan, moodooyinka dhamaadka-sare ee baabuurta koronto ee dibedda inta badan waxay qaataan dariiqa teknoolojiyadda sare ee nikkel, taas oo horseeday koror la taaban karo ee awoodda lagu rakibay baytariyada sare ee suuqa caalamiga ah, oo ay ku jiraan CATL, Panasonic, LG Energy, Samsung SDI, SKI iyo shirkadaha kale ee batteriga ee Shiinaha, Japan iyo Koonfurta Kuuriya.
Marka la eego saameynta, dhinaca kale, beddelka hadda ee birta doofaarka nikkel ee nikkel matte sare ayaa keentay in si tartiib tartiib ah loo sii daayo awoodda wax soo saarka mashruuca sababtoo ah dhaqaale ku filan. Qiimaha Nickelku wuu sii kordhayaa, kaas oo kicin doona awoodda wax-soo-saarka mashaariicda matte-ka sare ee Indonesia si loo dardar-geliyo wax-soo-saarka.
Dhanka kale, qiimaha alaabta oo kor u kacay awgeed, baabuurta tamarta cusub ayaa bilaabay inay kor u qaadaan qiimaha si wadajir ah. Warshaduhu waxay guud ahaan ka walaacsan yihiin in haddii qiimaha agabka nikkelku uu sii socdo inuu khamiiro, wax-soo-saarka iyo iibinta moodooyinka nikkel-ka sare ee baabuurta tamarta cusub laga yaabo inay korodho ama la xaddido sanadkan.
Waqtiga boostada: Abriil-12-2022